The Spratly Islands and other Chinese infiltrations

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The Spratly Islands and other Chinese infiltrations

Postby Roger Ramjet » Fri Jun 05, 2015 8:38 pm

This is disturbing news if it is true, even during the Vietnam War the Spratly islands and Parcell islands were no go areas because of their vast amounts of natural resources. Vietnam has already gone to war with China over their ownership before the French and Americans/allies wars.
Now Japan, the Philippines and every other south east asian nation is talking war and the US has two carrier groups near the South China Sea.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-06-05/m ... ea/6526640
As one of The Youngones (Neil) would say "Be afraid, be very very afraid".
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Re: The Spratly Islands

Postby Roger Ramjet » Fri Jun 05, 2015 8:46 pm

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Re: The Spratly Islands

Postby Ians » Fri Jun 05, 2015 9:25 pm

Typical Chinese bully tactic and time all countries who have a legitimate claim in this fiasco to tell China to rack-off.
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Re: The Spratly Islands

Postby Roger Ramjet » Fri Jun 05, 2015 10:19 pm

Ians wrote:Typical Chinese bully tactic and time all countries who have a legitimate claim in this fiasco to tell China to rack-off.

There's a few major problems there, the Vietnamese will not be bullied and will go to war with China at the drop of a hat pin. Their forces are ten times more disciplined than the Chinese are.
The next problem they face is the US Carrier Battle Fleet that may or may not be based in the SCS (South China Sea) as a deterent. If the stupid Chinese decide they will take on the Carrier Battle Group with ballistic missiles (it would last at least two to three days) or with their battery powered submarines (the main threat) then China will be looking for a new fleet of submarines as the US can pinpoint to within 1 yard where each of them are using their new sonar detection systems.
Their major problem will be the Japanese Navy (Defence Force) the second largest in the world. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_ac ... orce_ships it is by far the best in the region and not to be triffled with, especially not their new Aegis Class destroyers, nor their top of the line battery powered submarines that can run circles around the Chinese fleet.
Distance for China is also a killer, which is why it is trying to build airports (landing strips) in the Spratly Islands.
The problem is convincing the Chinese military that they are undertrained, underequipt and not in any position to bargain. But there the loss of face comes in. The Chinese generals believe they are the best armed forces in the world and can beat any nation. The problem is they are not going up against one nation, they are going up against many, all which have better claims to the Spratly Islands than China.
And then the problem of trade comes into play. The SCS is the main trading route for all of Asia, cut it off and there will be a clash. How long that clash lasts will depend on the resolve of the Chinese Generals. If they go up against either the Vietnamese (bad), the Japanese (very, very stupid) or the US Carrier Battle Fleet that may or may not be in the SCS (suicide) then things could hot up to boiling point very quickly.
The fact that the first shots have been fired by the Chinese at a Philippino fishing vessel in international waters is stupid, especially with the Philippino President in Japan at the moment.
One can but hope that sanity prevails........ or the Japanese Fleet flexes its muscles.
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Re: The Spratly Islands

Postby Ians » Fri Jun 05, 2015 10:49 pm

Good summary - let's hope that common sense prevails but always difficult when face is involved.
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Re: The Spratly Islands

Postby thailazer » Sat Jun 06, 2015 7:09 am

China seems to have a long term strategy in SE Asia and the railways across Thailand are likely part of it. Interesting to see the USA announce that they want to invest in Thailand's rail infrastructure as well. That would make it easier to watch what the Chinese are up to.
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Re: The Spratly Islands

Postby MGV12 » Sat Jun 06, 2015 7:54 am

Under the current circumstances it might be difficult to get travel insurance for this:

Spratly Islands: Vietnam sending tourists on a cruise to disputed region


Vietnam's trial cruise to the disputed Spratly Islands could pathe the way for increased tourism in the area

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/travel/desti ... egion.html

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Re: The Spratly Islands

Postby Roger Ramjet » Sat Jun 06, 2015 8:14 am

MGV12 wrote:Vietnam's trial cruise to the disputed Spratly Islands could pathe the way for increased tourism in the area

The key word in all of that was "patriotic". The Vietnamese are sending out the bait hoping China takes it. If China does do something stupid and takes the bait the Vietnam will act. It doesn't have a navy of great significance, but it does have a border with China and has been known to cross it at times with it's quite formidable array of tanks, infantry, artillery and assorted weaponry.
It's a clear message to China. These Vietnamese "tourists" are patriots and don't mind losing their lives to protect what is rightfully theirs. It is basically a declaration of war.
China needs to ignore it completely, but with China's military being stupid, anything could happen.
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Re: The Spratly Islands

Postby Roger Ramjet » Sat Jun 06, 2015 5:50 pm

This may just avert that pending disaster in the Spratly Islands: http://www.bangkokpost.com/news/asia/58 ... evelopment
It may also mean Thailand doesn't end up with a train system that is never on time, always breaking down and has basically no infrastructute. I'm referring to the Chinese high speed trains that run at low speeds.
I can imagine a "diplomatic" conversation about the Spratlys going something like this.
China says it will defend it's islands to the fullest. Even now we are monitoring the movement of traffic through the SCS and are prepared for any threat.
Japan understands your concern, but to only have three worthy submarines, , a destroyer, a frigate and other antiquated units patrolling at the following locations makes Japan think you are playing your usual stalling game.
China had no idea you knew the exact location of its fleet. I shall have to advise the minister.
Japan would appreciate that.

There are some very subtle hints in that article. It may just avert a bloody war that China would lose.
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Re: The Spratly Islands

Postby MGV12 » Sat Jun 06, 2015 6:11 pm

For those ... like me ... who knew nothing of nor about the Spratly Islands:

Abstract

The Spratly Islands are located in the South China Sea and consist of over 100 small islands and reefs, territorially contested by the governments of the People's Republic of China, the Republic of China (Taiwan), Vietnam, Brunei, the Philippines, and Malaysia. None of the islands lies more than 4m above sea level, with many actually lying below sea level at high tide. The combined area of the islands is approximately 5 sq km. The islands are considered strategically important because of their location in strategic shipping lanes, extensive fisheries, and the large amounts of hydrocarbons estimated to lie under the ocean bed. Approximately 45 of the islands are occupied by military forces of the claimant countries, and none of the islands have indigenous inhabitants. Tension in the region over competing territorial claims has occasionally boiled over in the past into limited military skirmishes, although a recent ASEAN accord has limited open disputes. [1] Rising sea levels and global competition for energy resources have increased tensions, especially in the context of rapidly expanding economies in the Asian region and the increased assertiveness related to territorial claims that has accompanied economic growth in China. The US has attempted to remain relevant in the discussion, because of the presence of energy resources and shipping lanes in the region, as well as requests by regional allies to act as a counter-balance to Chinese aggression. [2] As sea levels rise, many reefs and islands are likely to be submerged, increasing the urgency of territorial claims, requiring construction of new facilities, and increasing the likelihood of confusion and accidents between naval patrols or fishing vessels around newly submerged reefs.

More at: http://www1.american.edu/ted/ice/spratly-submerge.html

The 'facts' contained in this study may be contested by other sources/members.

The possibility that ... should Global Warming be a fact ... these islands may be submerged in due course will unlikely change their status with the competing parties.

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Re: The Spratly Islands

Postby Roger Ramjet » Sat Jun 06, 2015 7:19 pm

MGV12 wrote:The 'facts' contained in this study may be contested by other sources/members.

That's a fairly decent brief on the situation with the Spratly Islands. China must have them all for strategic and commercial purposes, mainly the former because that way they control the whole of the SCS and can dictate what vessels may use the SCS. It would also restrict other countries fishing rights to just a few kilometres off their own coastline and allow China to deploy its whole fishing fleet in the SCS.
Japan will not stand by and let them do that as they rely on passage through the SCS for 90% of their oil and 100% for trade.
China is being greedy it wants everything even though it has no connection to much of the islands.
You can't claim "we've been fishing there since the year dot", especially as other countries have as well and to do so just makes ASEAN more and more lame with its "non binding agreements".
The US has tried to pallate all parties involved but without success.
If China were to take over the SCS their first act would be to attack Taipei as they would then have refueling bases for their aircraft and ships. It would also be a disaster for China as Taipei is not actually unarmed.
China is using threats to make friends, it's rather like taking over Tibet and being hated, but still standing by a very stupid decision that may give them a strategic position against India, but in actual fact gains them nothing other than hatred.
I'm sure the military planners at the UN in Bangkok will have very many sleepless nights in the coming weeks trying to figure out the next move.... The Vietnamese "tourist tour" of the Spratly Islands and whether China will dare to fire on them or whether diplomacy by Japan has nullified that threat.
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Re: The Spratly Islands

Postby pipoz » Sun Jun 07, 2015 1:48 am

One thing you can be sure of is that China will have thought this through and will have an end plan, whatever it may be. The Chinese tend to make calculated moves, much like a game of chess and most probably will have an exit strategy (if they need it), unlike the Americans who tend to go into an issue, but seem to have lots of problems getting out of one.

I doubt whether China would lose much sleep over Japan, as the circumstances are different to those back in 1937. As for a China vs Tawain scrap, it would be interesting, if it did eventuate and I agree, that Tawain would not be a push over. However in the end, my money would be on China, unless of course America intervened.

Its also interesting that both China and Russia seem to be flexing their muscles at the same time, almost like they are both testing the waters, so to speak, to see if and how America will step in/intervene.

The Ukraine - Russia conflict has now been going for over a year and Russia slowly ups the ante, with just a few sanctions in place from Europe & America, none of which are deterring the Russians. I am sure China is watching this and who knows, maybe they will take a similar approach. Either way, the "Think Tanks" will be working overtime, trying to work out where it is all going and whether there is an answer to it.

Just my two cents worth

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Re: The Spratly Islands

Postby Roger Ramjet » Tue Jun 16, 2015 4:28 pm

This is a classic Chinese statement regarding it's halting of any more building on the Spratly Islands: I just love that second paragraph.
BEIJING — China will complete land reclamation projects on its disputed South China Sea territorial claims as planned within days, the Foreign Ministry said Tuesday, in an apparent bid to reassure its neighbours over moves seen as sharpening tensions in the strategically vital region.

However, in a sign that developments were far from over, a statement posted to the ministry's website said China would follow up by building infrastructure to carry out functions ranging from maritime search and rescue to environmental conservation and scientific research.

Complete story here: http://www.bangkokpost.com/news/asia/59 ... inish-soon

And to rub salt into the wound, yesterday they shot-up Vietnamese fishing boats near the Paracel Islands. They'll do it once too often and Viet Nam will react with invasion and this time their navy is much larger and stronger. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of ... el_Islands
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Re: The Spratly Islands

Postby MGV12 » Tue Jun 16, 2015 4:59 pm

Roger Ramjet wrote:This is a classic Chinese statement regarding it's halting of any more building on the Spratly Islands: I just love that second paragraph.
BEIJING — China will complete land reclamation projects on its disputed South China Sea territorial claims as planned within days, the Foreign Ministry said Tuesday, in an apparent bid to reassure its neighbours over moves seen as sharpening tensions in the strategically vital region.

However, in a sign that developments were far from over, a statement posted to the ministry's website said China would follow up by building infrastructure to carry out functions ranging from maritime search and rescue to environmental conservation and scientific research.

Complete story here: http://www.bangkokpost.com/news/asia/59 ... inish-soon

And to rub salt into the wound, yesterday they shot-up Vietnamese fishing boats near the Paracel Islands. They'll do it once too often and Viet Nam will react with invasion and this time their navy is much larger and stronger. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of ... el_Islands


Whereas ... from a different/differing perspective:

http://zeenews.india.com/tags/spratly-islands.html

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Re: The Spratly Islands

Postby Roger Ramjet » Tue Jun 16, 2015 6:40 pm

MGV12 wrote:Whereas ... from a different/differing perspective:

No, MGV12, exactly the same perspective, you must look at what I said. China is trying to lay claim to islands in the South China Sea, once they achieve that aim they will declare that there is no International Air Space around those islands and they will also control all the shipping going through the South China Sea.
America knows that there are multiple claims on nearly ever island in the SCS because those claims are before the International Court of Justice with the first case by the Pilippines going before it next month and as the Philippines was/were an allie during WW2 it has asked the US to help in keeping the air space open and also the shipping lanes.
China is making hay whilst the sun shines. It has made so many promises and broken everyone that other countries are uniting against them. The Chinese promised they would never place weapons on those islands they are "reclaiming" and then a month later snuck in two long range artillery pieces, and when they were caught removed them after much bullshit.
There are so many cases before the ICJ that it will take years to resolve. China wants it resolved now, by force if necessary.... possession in their eyes is 90% of the law, but we shall see. China wants everything by claiming they have been fishing in those waters since the year 800 AD, which may or not be true, but so have all the other countries.
It was not until recently that China even wanted the islands....when oil and gas were found.... and the realisation that they would control air space and the SCS that they embarked on their reclaimation program. http://www.monitor.upeace.org/innerpg.c ... rticle=623
http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm? ... id=1594904
http://econ.as.nyu.edu/docs/IO/9383/RR96-10.PDF
http://www.nytimes.com/1995/10/10/news/ ... ark.t.html
As you can see China claimed they would negotiate settlement through ASEAN, then immediately started building on the islands, and they are strategically placed islands. The IJC have now taken over because the Philippines lodged the first protest after negotiations through Indonesia broke down.
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